Historical change in associations between perceived risk, disapproval, and use of cannabis among young adults ages 19–30, 2011–2022

The current study used U.S. young adult data to examine overall and age group-specific historical trends in (a) mean perceived risk and disapproval of cannabis use, and (b) risk/use and disapproval/use associations.

Data were collected from 2011 to 2022 from 16,492 respondents aged 19–30 in the national Monitoring the Future panel study. Trends in mean risk and disapproval overall and by age group (19–22, 23–26, 27–30) were modeled. Models regressing any past 30-day cannabis use on risk and disapproval controlled for sex, race/ethnicity, college education, population density, state cannabis policy, region, and year. Age group differences and historical trends in regression estimates from year-specific models were examined.

From 2011 to 2022, overall mean perceived risk decreased from 3.08 (just over moderate) to 2.50 (between slight and moderate); mean disapproval decreased from 2.21 (between disapprove and strongly disapprove) to 1.66 (between don’t disapprove and disapprove). Higher risk and disapproval were independently associated with lower odds of past 30-day cannabis use overall (AORs 0.86 and 0.76, respectively); controlling for sociodemographics and state policy had virtually no impact on association strength. There were no significant age-related association differences. The risk/use association weakened from AOR 0.84 in 2011 to AOR 0.91 in 2022; the disapproval/use association remained stable (AORs 0.753 and 0.749).

Young adults now perceive cannabis as less risky and are less disapproving of using than they were a decade ago. Perceived risk has weakened as a cannabis use risk factor over time; disapproval has remained a stable risk factor.